Recycled Gold: The Quiet 25% of Global Supply

Every year roughly 1,200 tonnes of gold come not from the ground but from drawers, vaults, and circuit boards. Recycled supply is the silent counterweight to mine production, and it scales with price in a way mining never can.

Where recycled gold comes from

The largest source is jewellery scrap: pieces sold by households when prices spike or when economic distress forces liquidation. India and Turkey lead the way, with consumers culturally comfortable monetising heirlooms. Industrial recovery from electronics is smaller in tonnage but growing in importance.

• Annual recycled supply: ~1,100-1,300 tonnes
• Mine supply: ~3,600 tonnes
• Recycled share of total: 25-30%
• Top scrap source: India, ~150-200 tonnes/yr
• E-waste gold recovery: ~250-300 tonnes/yr

The price elasticity

Recycled supply is the most price-elastic part of the market. When gold rallied to record highs in 2024-2025, scrap flows to refiners in Mumbai and Istanbul jumped over 30% year on year. Mining production cannot react that quickly. Recycling is the swing factor.

"The fastest gold mine in the world is a jewellery shop with a melting crucible." London bullion trader

Quality and traceability

Recycled gold can be re-refined to LBMA-grade purity, but its origin chain is harder to verify than freshly mined dore. Some end-users a few luxury watch brands and electronics OEMs now insist on segregated certified-recycled streams. The premium for verified recycled metal is small but rising.

Why it matters strategically

Forecasting the gold price means forecasting both supply legs. Analysts who model only mine output miss the price-responsive part of the equation. A 15% price spike that triggers a 20% jump in scrap flows can absorb a meaningful chunk of incremental ETF or central bank demand.

Bottom line: gold is the most recycled commodity on earth. Ignore the scrap numbers and you misread the market.